Beware of Looming Threats

An Analysis of the Cote d’Ivoire & Liberian Conflicts
By: Bill K. Jarkloh



Journalist Bill K. Jarkloh

There is reason for every Liberian to be concerned. The situation in Ivory Coast has certainly posed threat to pre-election Liberia, but if prudence is not employed in managing the political activities in the country, the situation in Ivory Coast could be imported to Liberia, considering the involvement of some Liberian combatants in that country’s crisis who could be manipulated back to Liberia in the name of ‘revolution’ for the third time.
I am indeed touched to speak to a gruesome picture of massacred Ivorian residents in Doukoué carried in the FrontPageAfrica’s Volume 5 edition number One, a picture in which columns of bodies were seen killed in that part of West Africa in a manner and form that bring to memory some of the scenes of the Liberian civil debacle of the 1990s. While mass graves are being discovered in Liberia, it is absolute insanity and traumatic for Liberians to be reminded of their past, using scenes from the Ivorian crisis of elsewhere. But the fact remains that such scene does much to remind political actors and their followers, especially those holding state powers that much should be done to avert a situation that would take Liberia back to such bloody era.
Skimming through, the FrontPageAfrica captioned the story with the headline reading: Ivory Coast’s Killing Fields. The obscenity in the photo itself was highly revealing the danger that awaits any of the countries neighboring Ivory Coast, especially Liberia. Explaining the photo, the paper says, “With Abidjan on edge, both sides in the ongoing post-election violence are claiming casualties; but which side is responsible for the killings of hundred in the battle between internationally recognized winner Alassane Ouattara and embattled [incumbent] leader Laurent Gbagbo?” As the story was told, the innocent victims were alive until a town named Doukoué was ‘liberated’ by pro-Outtarra forces.
a) Two Countries, similar case
While everyone is calling for international intervention in the post electoral conflict in that country, it is important to state that the situation in Ivory Coast is redolently not different from the Liberian civil conflict, local and international radios were at the same time broadcasting negations of surrender by incumbent Gbagbo who is closed up at the basement of his residence in Abidjan, la Cote d’Ivoire. Perhaps this could be the only difference between the civil war of the 1990s in Liberia and the present catastrophe taking place in that country. This is because Samuel Doe, the incumbent in Liberian at the time refused to negotiate his departure from the Executive Mansion and was therefore killed like a beast by rebel forces. Otherwise than the negation efforts in the Ivory Coast for the incumbent President’s departure, we are talking about two settings – Liberia and Ivory Coast - with conflicts absolutely similar. Oh no! Another character is the fact that the winner of the Ivory Coast
election, Alasane Outtarra is alive, making his case and is now backed by fighters, while in Liberia, invading forces from the Ivory Coast under the leadership of Charles Taylor killed opposition political leaders that should have been protected, including the presumed winner of the 1985 presidential elections of Liberia.
Well, one thing that must be said is that the timing and trend of the post electoral Ivorian conflict is inimical and utterly unfavorable to present today’s Liberia, a country which is journeying towards a volatile presidential election that should precede a national constitutional referendum obviously purposed to qualify a constitutionally unqualified incumbent for a second term bid, out of what seems to be uncompromising and desperation for a second term amidst heightened public criticisms.
b) The tribal factor plays also
The situation in Ivory Coast is similar to Liberia’s 1990 conflict. Firstly the Ivorian case is charged with ethnicity and religious tension just as the Liberian situation. In fact there is no secrete here in Liberia that the ex-combatants of the erstwhile National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL) are crossing the border to fight for Outtara who most people speculate has a Gio or Minor background while the former fighters of the defunct Liberia Peace Council and the former MODEL who are mainly Khrans have been battling in favor of Ivorian incumbent Gbagbo. In this kind of situation, the possibility of a spillover to Liberia is imminent unless cautious and precautionary measures are put in place to avert winding eventualities.
Besides, the crisis in question centers on the intransigence of a defeated President who has refused to surrender power to the actual winner of the election. Gbagbo was beaten flat by his presidential contender Alassane Outtara before the international community but refused to cede to the actual winner, Mr. Gbagbo, just as Samuel Doe of the National Democratic Party of Liberia (NDPL) in 1985, overwhelmingly lost the presidential race to Jackson F. Doe of the Liberia Action Party (LAP). Gbagbo contended that some ballots from Outtarra stronghold were in valid, influenced the Constitutional Court to legitimize his claims. With Outtarra’s insistence on the Presidency backed by the international community, Gbagbo has chosen to use the State Security against the people of Ivory Coast to sustain himself in power while Outtarra, backed by the New Rebels forces that once fought in the first round of the Ivorian crisis, has been resisting the incumbent. The innocent people I saw in the FrontPageAfrica Newspaper and others who have lost their lives are the ones in the web of the power play. Others have scattered into Ghana, Guinea, with more than 100,000 refugees crossing the border into Liberia.
c) The Unhealthy Pre-election bickering and flaws
This situation in the Ivory Coast precedes the Liberian presidential election in which the incumbent is out for a second bid. Already in Liberia there has been pre-elections bickering. The President is accused of attempting to run a faulty referendum that would qualify her to run, since Article 52 (c) providing for a 10-year residency clause. According to Article 52 (c), “No person shall be eligible to hold the office of President or Vice–President, unless that person is … resident in the Republic ten years prior to his election, provided that the President and the Vice–President shall not come from the same County.” Critics of the pending Referendum have already argues that the President is forcing the National Referendum through to reduce the 10 years to five years so that her second bid aspiration to the Presidency will be a fruition.
So what is the truth of this argument? The truth is that the President came to power through a transitional arrangement leading to election, which did not consider every provision within the Constitution. It was provided in the Comprehensive Peace Accord that the 2005 elections that brought President Sirleaf to power was Special Elections that should lead the country to democracy. Now that there is no excuse of sidestepping any portion of the 2011 Presidential election, the best option is to force through a Referendum that would amend that portion that would prevent the incumbency of President Sirleaf.
In fact the process leading to the ensuing Referendum is shrouded with flaws. For instance, a referendum is provided for under Articles 91 and 92 of the Constitution. In CHAPTER XII covering AMENDMENTS, Article 91 states, “This Constitution may be amended whenever a proposal by either (1) two-thirds of the membership of both Houses of the Legislature or (2) a petition submitted to the Legislature, by not fewer than 10,000 citizens which receives the concurrence of two-thirds of the membership of both Houses of the Legislature, is ratified by two-thirds of the registered voters, voting in a referendum conducted by the Elections Commission not sooner than one year after the action of the Legislature.
The national Legislature passed a resolution last August proposing the Referendum though, but this was the President’s second bid proposal. This referendum was never proposed in the last five years until after the incumbent President expressed interest. The fact remains that Madam Sirleaf has not been resident in the country for the last 10 years prior to the 2005 elections and by this she would not be qualified under Constitutional rule guiding the election in which she wants a second term.
Secondly, the phrase not sooner than one year means “earlier than one year; quicker than one year or closer to one year. So why should the NEC and the Legislature, knowing that 2011 October will be Presidential and Legislative Election passed a Joint Resolution for Referendum. This was why National Elections Commission Chairman James Fromayan was declarative that Referendum wasn’t possible ahead of the 2011 elections. Unfortunately however, he somersaulted anyway, on his position. The reason is obvious that there was an influence, for he knew every provision of the Constitution when the Referendum wasn’t possible ahead of the 2011 elections.
In fact the referendum itself fails to satisfy Article 92 which provides that proposed constitutional amendments shall be accompanied by statements setting forth the reasons therefore and shall be published in the Official Gazette and made known to the people through the information services of the Republic. In this case, what is the reason set forth to warrant the referendum changing Article 52(c)? What rationale difference it makes in changing election month from October to November? We are raising some of the contentions that may sprout and geminate to chaos, a debacle that may replay the past since already the Ivorian crisis has set into motion blueprint for spillover of the confusion in that country.
Besides, the referendum involving Article 83 (a) , which provides for voting for the President, Vice–President, members of the Senate and members of the House of Representatives to be conducted throughout the Republic on the second Tuesday in October of each election year, to be changed to November does not make any difference and sense. October and November are the same climatic, DRY SEASON in Liberia, and their nearness climate wise is practically the same. So why the Change – this has not been convincingly explained and has therefore constitute a point for contention.
Another issue raised for referendum is the issue of the term of service of judges and justices as provided for in Article 72 (b). Article 72 (b) promulgates that the Chief Justice and the Associate Justices of the Supreme Court and judges of subordinate courts of record shall be retired at the age of seventy; provided, however, that a justice or judge who has attained that age may continue in office for as long as may be necessary to enable him to render judgment or perform any other judicial duty in regard to proceedings entertained by him before he attained that age. So why extend the tenure to extra five years from 70 years.
For me, I agree with others arguing that a prudent amendment could be the one reducing the tenure of services of the Chief Justice and the Associate Justices of the Supreme Court and judges of subordinate courts of record to far less than 70 years, in a country where many younger, middle-aged or older folks than 70 years of age are interested in reading or have already read law. This would create opportunity for the folks as stated to also contribute to their country through the administration of justice as justices or judges.
These constitutional changes, no doubt, are supposed to protecting incumbents in power, to the silencing of the greater population and the knowledgeable elites. Where politicians are feeling isolated from power almost perpetually, the next option is to consider actions that could be counter-productive to peace. It is like a despot driving away politicians who had gone out, remobilized and return with force. Liberia has learned this lesson and will not afford to return to it.
These issues have certainly continued to stir the political terrain, just as debate of the President’s failure to submit to an irking report of the Truth & Reconciliation Commission has not been resolved. This report recommends that the President and others who supported the war morally and financially should not hold office for at least 30 years. The President, apparently disturbed by this recommendation has failed to act on the TRC report in spite persistent calls. Today, the TRC report remains swept under the rug while the defunct TRC leadership particularly its Chairman has fruitlessly struggled to ensure that the report is implemented.
d) conclusion
Well, my fingers are going of the keyboard with re-emphasis of attention to the situation next door, the situation to the borders of Liberia with Ivory Coast where Liberians mercenaries are active combatants going in and out with looted goods trade.
A disturbing story of the security situation was told. A Nimbaian from the border lectured on the metro while en route from New Georgia how terrible it is for those living along the Liberian side of the border with Ivory Coast. “You will be hearing the echoes of bombardments, with the automatic machine guns popping under the heavy sound. You will see Liberians militias armed mingling with the state security forces who dare not to pressurize them. One immigration officer told me that they know those boys and they are not causing problem for the Liberian security”.
I was stunned to have heard this. In fact he said of the militia in armed were armed in the Ivory Coast and were fighting alongside the Outtarra side. They conveyed looted vehicles and goods to Liberia with no tax levied because they are armed, and they ran inside Liberia to rest if they were tire fighting for a while. That is certainly absurd for the security to allow, even though I was told that they are being coerced to permit such, because they were not adequately armed to tame the Liberian mercenaries fighting in the Ivory Coast.
That is the point I made when I overviewed the Liberian political scenario. Processes and debates attending the pending referendum and the anticipated elections are not healthy at all. With the ill-equipped Liberian army, the need to be prudent to avoid electoral conflict should not be overemphasized. Such conflicts cold destroy the gains made by this administration and send the country in shambles. By meaning, I am saying the National Elections Commission, the desperate-for-second term incumbent and government and the ferociously uncompromising opposition critics should see reason to be not only cautious and meticulous, but to act in a form and manner that would correct every flaw along the road to election; I mean no room for electoral irregularities and future post election conflict should be entertained as Liberians were tire of war.